Sunday, September 28, 2008

You Know It Could Be a Tie

The election, we mean. Dig this scenario we came up with (link to map). Basically what would happen:

Obama wins all the states he is supposed to, McCain wins all the states he is supposed to, and then, among the tossups:

Obama wins NH (Dems have been polling well here; John Sununu a big target, and very unpopular.
Obama wins NM (Al Gore won this state in 2000, and Democratic efforts + polls there have been favorable. Plus the Richadson boost)
Obama wins NV (A large population increase of Hispanics will help him here).
Obama wins PA (Biden boost + Clinton eventually gets her act together and starts campaigning in this state, strong turnout in Philly plus squatters (have been foreclosed upon) shuffle from the abandoned building the polling place across the street and decide they don't want McCain to have another giant house come January).

McCain wins FL (outpolling Obama there now, has had strong organization on the ground for months).
McCain wins VA (Close one, but despite valiant efforts Dem. organizers are not able to pull out a victory as McCain smeaer adds convince bible-thumping rubes to turn out in force, Repub. establishment successfully turns away enough black voters at the polls as they did in Florida in 2000).
McCain wins OH (Bush won this state by 200k votes in '04, the Palin bounce gets enough disaffected women to vote for Obama and even Clinton's belated appearances can't make up the gap. White folks clinging to guns and religion, et seq, deliver for McCain in another close one).

Then it's 269-269. Obama wins the national popular vote (his victories will be massive, whereas McCain's will be very close, esp. in states like Virginia, and less than expected in places like Colorado and Indiana, where voter registration efforts and Dem. campaigning have caused voter turnout to surge). House of Representatives makes BHO the first black President.

Of course, it's really a sad commentary on the human condition that this election is even close, but what are you going to do - we'll take.


Anonymous said...

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.

The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes-that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

So there would never be a tie in the electoral vote, because the compact always represents a bloc consisting of a majority of the electoral votes. Thus, an election for President would never be thrown into the House of Representatives (with each state casting one vote) and an election for Vice President would never be thrown into the Senate (with each Senator casting one vote).

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes - 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.



Rule 12 (f) said...

TITCR, (though we think American territories - like PR - should have voting rights as well).

The other point is that isn't really sort of a trick-play without an amendment to the Constitution?

Anonymous said...

American TTTerritories don't pay income taxes. If they don't want to pay their fair share of the tax burden why should they vote?

Rule 12 (f) said...

because their citizens are getting killed in Iraq?

Anonymous said...

Mercenaries. They're getting paid for it.

Rule 12 (f) said...

lollercoaster, that would make all American soldiers mercenaries.